Changes for document Stratosphere Sub-Project

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18 18 * Stratospheric predictability: https:~/~/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030920
19 19 * Stratosphere - troposphere coupling: https:~/~/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030923
20 20
21 -Another milestone was a joint meeting held with SPARC DynVar in Madrid that brought together a wide range of scientists working on dynamics and predictability, including but not limited to stratosphere topics. Another joint meeting was held in Munich in October 2023 ([[(% class="wikiinternallink wikiinternallink" %)**Conference webpage**>>path:https://www.sparc-climate.org/meetings/the-role-of-atmospheric-dynamics-for-climate-and-extremes/]](%%)).
21 +Another milestone was a joint meeting held with SPARC DynVar in Madrid that brought together a wide range of scientists working on dynamics and predictability, including but not limited to stratosphere topics. Another joint meeting was held in Munich in October 2023 ([[(% class="wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink" %)**Conference webpage**>>path:https://www.sparc-climate.org/meetings/the-role-of-atmospheric-dynamics-for-climate-and-extremes/]](%%)).
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35 35 d. Are biases linked to stratospheric processes/variability? E.g., are biases larger before or after SSWs, vortex intensifications, phases of the QBO, etc?
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37 37
38 - These efforts are being led by Zachary Lawrence. The first paper was published in 2022, and can be found at
38 + These efforts are being led by Zachary Lawrence. The first [[paper >>url:https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/977/2022/wcd-3-977-2022.html]]was published in 2022.
39 39
40 -https:~/~/wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/977/2022/wcd-3-977-2022.html
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42 -A second community paper will be submitted in June 2024. A third community paper is planned. If you would like to join these efforts, please contact the SNAP co-chairs (Amy Butler, NOAA and Chaim Garfinkel, Hebrew University).
41 +A second community paper will be submitted in Q2 of 2024. A third community paper is planned. If you would like to join these efforts, please contact the SNAP co-chairs (Amy Butler, NOAA and Chaim Garfinkel, Hebrew University).
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44 44
45 45 **Ongoing Activities (2 of 2):
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56 56 d. To assess the representation of stratospheric wave driving.
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59 -The basic experimental protocol consists of a set of forecast ensembles: (1) a standard, free running forecast ensemble, (2) a 'perfect stratosphere' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards the observed evolution, and (3) a 'control' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards climatology. The paper documenting the Experiment Protocol for damping experiments was [[published >>url:https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.html||style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]]in 2022. To date, twelve modeling groups at eleven centers have contributed integrations following this protocol, and most data is archived on [[CEDA>>url:https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/snap/data/post-cmip6/SNAPSI]]. This allows for an unprecedented, multi-model comparison of the dynamics underlying the surface responses to sudden stratospheric warmings. Moreover, by including 'counterfactual' forecasts in which the stratospheric circulation remains in a climatological state, the experimental protocol allows for formal attribution statements to be made regarding the surface extremes that followed the stratospheric anomalies.
58 +The basic experimental protocol consists of a set of forecast ensembles: (1) a standard, free running forecast ensemble, (2) a 'perfect stratosphere' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards the observed evolution, and (3) a 'control' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards climatology. The paper documenting the Experiment Protocol for these experiments was [[published >>url:https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.html||style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]]in 2022. To date, twelve modeling groups at eleven centers have completed integrations following this protocol, and nearly all of the data has been added to the SNAPSI archive at [[CEDA>>url:https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/snap/data/post-cmip6/SNAPSI]]. This allows for an unprecedented, multi-model comparison of the dynamics underlying the surface responses to sudden stratospheric warmings. Moreover, by including 'counterfactual' forecasts in which the stratospheric circulation remains in a climatological state, the experimental protocol allows for formal attribution statements to be made regarding the surface extremes that followed the stratospheric anomalies.
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61 +In addition to the four aforementioned goals, two working groups are analyzing stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the tropics in these experiments in collaboration with with QBOi and SATIO-TCS. Six working groups are working on papers documenting the results - these publications will be submitted in Q3 and Q4 of 2024.
62 62
63 -In addition to the four aforementioned goals, two working groups are analyzing stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the tropics in these experiments in collaboration with with QBOi and SATIO-TCS. Each of the six working groups are working on papers documenting the results - these publications will be submitted in Q3 and Q4 of 2024.
64 -
65 65 Anyone interested in participating in the analysis for the 6 community papers is encouraged to contact Peter Hitchcock (aph28@cornell.edu). The data embargo for the broader community will tentatively be lifted in 2024.
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