Changes for document Stratosphere Sub-Project

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37 37 These efforts are being led by Zachary Lawrence. The current plan is to submit 1-2 community papers in late summer of 2021. If you would like to join these efforts, please contact the SNAP co-chairs (Amy Butler, NOAA and Chaim Garfinkel, Hebrew University) or Zachary Lawrence.
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40 -**Upcoming Activities: experiments for operational centres to perform that isolate the role of the stratosphere on predictive skill**
40 +**Upcoming Activities:
41 +__S__tratospheric __N__udging __A__nd __P__redictable __S__urface __I__mpacts (SNAPSI - **experiments for operational centres to perform that isolate the role of the stratosphere on predictive skill)
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42 42 Recent studies including our review papers have highlighted that key to understanding stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the extra-tropics and S2S predictability more broadly is a greater understanding how the representation of tropospheric eddy-jet feedbacks contribute to this predictability. Similarly, in the tropics, a focus on the links between the QBO and MJO predictability is very important. With this in mind, our next major project is to plan, coordinate, and analyze an experiment in which the stratosphere is damped towards observed stratospheric events, replicating earlier idealised studies in simpler, low- resolution models which helped to develop more detailed theories for how planetary and synoptic scale eddies contribute to coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. Peter Hitchcock will be the scientific lead.
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53 53 d. To assess the representation of stratospheric wave driving.
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57 57 The basic experimental protocol consists of a set of forecast ensembles: (1) a standard, free running forecast ensemble, (2) a 'perfect stratosphere' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards the observed evolution, and (3) a 'control' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards climatology. Further details of the experimental protocol will be described in an article soon to be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. To date, twelve modeling groups at eleven centers are planning to contribute integrations following this protocol. This will allow for an unprecedented, multi-model comparison of the dynamics underlying the surface responses to sudden stratospheric warmings. Moreover, by including 'counterfactual' forecasts in which the stratospheric circulation remains in a climatological state, the experimental protocol will allow for formal attribution statements to be made regarding the surface extremes that followed the stratospheric anomalies.
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59 59 A preliminary version of the Experiment Protocol for damping experiments can be viewed here: [[http:~~/~~/s2sprediction.net/xwiki/bin/downloadrev/Phase2/Stratosphere/SNAP%20Nudging%20Protocol%20Description%20%2D%20Interim.pdf?rev=1.1>>http://s2sprediction.net/xwiki/bin/downloadrev/Phase2/Stratosphere/SNAP%20Nudging%20Protocol%20Description%20%2D%20Interim.pdf?rev=1.1]]
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62 -We have already held very fruitful discussions with QBOi about a joint initiative that would explore stratosphere-troposphere coupling in both the extra-tropics and tropics and for both initialised and free-running models using a combined and agreed upon damping framework. A rough timeline is:
62 +We have already held very fruitful discussions with QBOi and SATIO-TCS about a joint initiative that would explore stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the tropics using these same experiments, in addition to the four aforementioned goals. A rough timeline is:
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64 64 Q2 2021 – submission of paper outlining experimental protocol (with input from modelling centres)
65 65 Q2 2021 – begin modelling experiments
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66 66 Q4 2021 – completion of modelling experiments and transfer of detailed dynamical diagnostics to a shared, open data repository
67 67 Q1-Q3 2022 – analysis of damped runs and production of ~~4 papers on outcomes
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69 -Q4 2022 Data embargo lifted
69 +Anyone interested in participating in the analysis for the 4 community papers is encouraged to contact Peter Hitchcock (aph28@cornell.edu). The data embargo for the broader community will be lifted in fall of 2022.
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