South Asia

Last modified by S2S_regionact on 2022/01/20 14:51

  • Introduction


    The subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction, which corresponds to predictions beyond two weeks but less than a season, fills this gap between weather and climate forecasting. It has immense social-economic benefits for hazard prevention and risk management as well as economic planning. Considering the recent changes happening in the spatial and temporal characteristics of weather and climate systems, the importance of S2S prediction has multiplied manifold. 

    The physical basis for S2S prediction is primarily rooted in the intrinsic predictability of large-scale circulation associated with the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the form of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISOs) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The evolution of El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), soil moisture, snow cover and sea ice, stratosphere-troposphere interactions, ocean conditions and tropical-extratropical teleconnections also influences the S2S predictability.

    The South Asia region experiences various hydro-meteorological hazards including cyclones, depressions, heavy rainfall, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. The forecast and early warning on the S2S time scale is the key to the management of these hazards. The presence and influence of tropical ISOs play an important role in the S2S predictability over South Asia.  

    Over the region, the S2S prediction activities are led by various meteorological research organisations and operational centres. The research centres focus on developing competent S2S prediction systems and tools for applying them for societal benefit. Operational centres implement the prediction systems developed at research organisations and disseminate the forecasts to the end-users for societal applications.

  • Information on regional events 

6. IMPO Launch Event, 28 February 2022, India

An International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO) was established at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, in July 2021 to support monsoon research activities of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This is a joint effort by WMO and IITM to help coordinate monsoon research across the world.

To commemorate the launch of the IMPO, a celebratory event has been set to be held online on 28 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC (1830 IST), also celebrated as National Science Day in India.

Meeting Link: https://youtu.be/8nCGIbhRnb8 

The event will feature brief remarks by the concerned lead stakeholders and a short science talk:

  • Dr. Detlef Stammer, Chair, WCRP Joint Scientific Committee
  • Dr. Chris Davis, Chair, WWRP Scientific Steering Committee
  • Dr Jitendra Singh,  Hon’ble Minister of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India  (pre-recorded)
  • Dr M. Ravichandran, Secretary to Govt. of India, Ministry of Earth Sciences
  • Dr. Krishnan Raghavan, Acting Director, IITM
  • Professor C.P. Chang, International monsoon expert, USA (Science Talk)

5. Seventh WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-7), 23-26 March 2022, New Delhi, India

The International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM) is a major quadrennial symposia/workshops series under the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The seventh workshop in this series, the IWM-7, is being organized at New Delhi, India, jointly by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, and the WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR), in cooperation with the CLIVAR/GEWEX Monsoons Panel of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO) hosted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The workshop is scheduled to be held during 23-26 March 2022.

The IWM provides a forum for researchers and forecasters to discuss recent advances and current issues involving monsoons as key features of earth-system phenomena covering weather-to-climate time scales affecting large populations around the world. The emphasis is to address monsoon impacts as part of the societal challenges prioritized by the WWRP: high-impact weather, water, agriculture, urbanization and new technologies, in monsoon regions around the world. Outcomes from the workshop are expected to facilitate the transfer of new science and technology to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in these regions.

For more details, please visit https://community.wmo.int/news/wgtmr1st-circular-and-call-papers-seventh-wmo-international-workshop-monsoons-iwm-7

Interested participants are invited to send abstracts of their proposed presentations (oral as well as poster) by 31 October 2021. The abstracts (of maximum 300 words) should be submitted online for which, an online portal https://mausam.imd.gov.in/IWM7/form/form.php for the submission of abstract has been created.

Those who have already submitted the abstract earlier may kindly submit it again through this online portal. The abstracts should include the name(s) of the author(s), affiliation(s), mailing address and e-mail address and phone number of the corresponding author. The theme (one of the above eight themes) to which the abstract pertains should also be clearly mentioned.

4. ONLINE TRAINING WORKSHOP ON "SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) PREDICTION OF MONSOONS", 1 - 12 November 2021

    in Conjunction with the Seventh WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-7) to be held in early 2022 in India.

    The IWM series provides a forum for researchers and forecasters to discuss recent advances and current issues involving monsoons as an example of an earth-system phenomenon covering weather-to-climate time scales affecting large populations around the world. The emphasis is to address monsoon impacts as part of the societal challenges of the WWRP: high-impact weather, water, agriculture, urbanization, and new technologies, in monsoon regions around the world. The outcomes of IWM are sought to transfer new science and technology to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services over the relevant monsoon regions. The IWM-7 has two components, an online training workshop in November 2021 and a scientific workshop in spring 2022.

    The training workshop will be focused on the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of monsoons and will offer short courses to NMHS forecasters. Specific topics will include
    1.S2S predictability sources.
    2.Access to the S2S database and tools
    3.Model validation and forecast verification
    4.Calibration and ensemble techniques.

    A pre-workshop orientation course was offered before the main training workshop to introduce and facilitate the data and tools to be compiled by the trainees in advance and to familiarize the trainees with the workshop procedures including the practical sessions.

    Please visit https://icmpo.tropmet.res.in/iwm7training.php for more details on the workshop.

3. S2S Webinar on “S2S Forecast and its applications in South Asia”:

    WMO S2S Working Group and International CLIVAR Monsoon Project Office (ICMPO) with active support from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), India organized a one-day webinar on “S2S Forecast and its applications in South Asia” on 28 July 2021 during 1100-1300 UTC (1630-1830 IST)at IITM, Pune, India.

    The webinar had four talks from scientists and users who are from the S2S prediction and application areas. This was a part of the monthly webinar series organized by the WMO S2S Prediction Project.

    The recording of the webinar is available at:  https://youtu.be/-A15D1pl0BY

    For details of the webinar, please visit https://icmpo.tropmet.res.in/webinarseries.php

2. International Symposium on Tropical Meteorology (INTROMET-2021) ON CHANGING CLIMATE: CONSEQUENCES AND CHALLENGES (C4-21), November 23-26, 2021:

   The Cochin Chapter of the Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) hosted INTROMET-2021 with the theme Changing Climate: Consequences and Challenges. It provided an excellent opportunity for the national and international community of Atmospheric Scientists to discuss various issues of the changing climate and their consequences and challenges.

    Please visit https://www.intromet2021.org/ for more details.

1. Virtual International Conference on the "Future directions of Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction over South Asia", 29-31 March 2021, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India

The conference was jointly organised by IITM and WWRP/WCRP Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project of WMO. This conference aimed to review our current abilities to make skilful predictions on S2S scale and to identify new initiatives, collaborations, and emerging science questions.

Many eminent scientists around the world gave invited talks at the conference.

For more details and recorded sessions, please visit https://www.tropmet.res.in/erpas/s2s/  

  • Institutions/Projects in the region working on S2S

    1. National Monsoon Mission

    Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India has launched the 'National Monsoon Mission' (NMM) with a vision to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon rainfall on different time scales. MoES has bestowed the responsibility of execution and coordination of this mission to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. For this national mission, IITM is collaborating with NCEP (USA), MoES organisations and various academic institutions/organizations under NMM. Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP, USA has been identified as the basic modelling system for the above purpose, as it is one of the best among the currently available coupled models.

    2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India

    Under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) Project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) started extended range prediction efforts in 2011 by adopting the Climate Forecast System (CFS) from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. An ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed for the ERP by using an indigenous perturbation technique, which was later developed into a multi-model EPS.

    The extended range prediction products for research/scientific use that are generated from the multi-model ensemble prediction system (MMEPS) developed indigenously by IITM are updated every Thursday at https://www.tropmet.res.in/erpas/index.php

    3. International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO)

    A new agreement was signed in July 2021 between the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Director of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), with the kind approval of the Hon’ble  Minister of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, to host an International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO) at IITM, to support monsoon research activities of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This is a joint effort by WMO and IITM to help coordinate monsoon research across the world.

    One of the core responsibilities of IMPO is to support the acitivites of the Monsoons Panel, jointly established by CLIVAR and GEWEX core projects of the WCRP. IMPO also supports the monsoon relevant activities of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)'s Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR). IMPO promotes cross-panel linkages within the working structures of the WWRP as well as WCRP, on monsoon-related matters.

    IMPO is hosted within the IITM campus at Pune, India, and operates under the overall supervision of the Director of IITM.

    More details on IMPO can be found at https://impo.tropmet.res.in/aboutus.html

  • Key regionally-relevant S2S research questions & activities being pursued in the region

1. How to improve the S2S predictability over South Asia?

2. How global warming has affected the S2S predictability over South Asia?

3. How can we improve the prediction of extreme weather events on S2S time scale?

4. Whether AI/ML techniques can increase the S2S prediction skill up to 4 weeks?

5. How to apply the S2S forecasts for societal benefits?

 

  • Publications

  • Joseph S., AK Sahai, Hindhiya Shabu, R. Chattopadhyay, Manpreet Kaur, Recent Changes in the spatio-temporal characteristics of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147, 251–264 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03830-7
  • Sahai A.K., Manpreet Kaur, Susmitha Joseph, Avijit Dey, R. Phani, Raju Mandal and Rajib Chattopadhyay, Multi-Model Multi-Physics Ensemble: A Futuristic Way to Extended Range Prediction System, Front. Clim., 21 May 2021 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.655919
  • Kaur, M., Sahai, A.K., Phani, R., Joseph, S., Mandal, R., Dey, A., Chattopadhyay, R., Multi-physics schema for sub-seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon, Clim Dyn, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05926-2.
  • Akhter J., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Nageswararao M.M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Kharif rice yield prediction over Gangetic West Bengal using IITM-IMD extended range forecast products, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Online, June 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03679-w, 1-12.
  • Kumar, B., Chattopadhyay, R., Singh, M. et al. Deep learning-based downscaling of summer monsoon rainfall data over Indian region. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 1145-1156 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03489-6.
  • E. Shroyer, A. Tandon, D. Sengupta , .., R. Chattopadhyay,..., A. K. Sahai et al. Bay of Bengal Intraseasonal Oscillations and the 2018 Monsoon Onset Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0113.1.
  • Hemadri Bhusan Amat, M. Pradhan, C. T. Tejavath, Avijit Dey, S. A. Rao, A. K. Sahai and Karumuri Ashok, Value addition to forecasting: towards Kharif crop predictability through local climate variations associated with Indo-Pacific climate drivers, Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03572-6.
  • Lekshmi S, R Chattopadhyay, M Kaur, S Joseph, R. Phani, A Dey, R. Mandal, A. K. Sahai, On the role of Initial Error Growth in the Skill of Extended Range Prediction of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147, 205–215 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03818-3
  • Pattanaik D.R., Mandal R., Phani R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Mohapatra M., Large-scale features associated with excess monsoon rainfall over india during 2019 and the real-time extended range forecast, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Online, June 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00703-021-00808-y, 1-23.
  • A. K. Sahai, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Phani M. Krishna, D.R. Pattanaik, S. Abhilash, Chapter 20 - Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases, Editor(s): Andrew W. Robertson, Frederic Vitart, Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, Elsevier,2019, Pages 421-438,ISBN 9780128117149, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00020-6.
  • Chattopadhyay R., Chakraborty S., Sahai A.K. (2019) Impact of Climatic Stress on Groundwater Resources in the Coming Decades Over South Asia. In: Sikdar P. eds Groundwater Development and Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75115-3_17.
  • Vincent Moron, Rodrigo Bombardi, Harry Hendon, Andrew Marshall, Atul Kumar Sahai and Rajib Chattopadhyay, Monsoon Sub-seasonal Prediction in the Abstract volume of the book The Sixth WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-VI), 2019, Accepted in Full book pp. 140-147, Available at: https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/IWM6AbstractsVolume.pdf.
  • Shahi N.K., Rai S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Prediction of dominant daily modes of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP GFS model, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Online, April 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00703-021-00793-2, 1-19.
  • Sahai A.K., Kaur Manpreet, Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Phani R., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Multi-Model Multi-Physics Ensemble: A Futuristic Way to Extended Range Prediction System, Frontiers in Climate, 3: 655919, May 2021, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.655919, 1-11.
  • Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Manpreet Kaur, Dey A., Mandal Raju., Phani R., Chattopadhyay R., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., A review of the development and implementation of a tropical cyclone prediction system for North Indian Ocean in a multi-model ensemble framework, Mausam, 72, January 2021, 57-76.
  • Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Muralikrishna R.P. , Mandal R., Dey A., Active-Break transitions of monsoons Over India as predicted by Coupled Model Ensembles, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177, September 2020, DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02503-2, 4391-4422.
  • Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Saha S., Awate P., Dutta S., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., Pattanaik D.R., Despande S., Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters, Scientific Reports, 10:14741, September 2020, DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-71668-6, 1-13.
  • Kaur M., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Mandal M., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mukhopadhyay P., Abhilash S., Dynamical downscaling of a multimodel ensemble prediction system: Application to tropical cyclones, Atmospheric Science Letters, 21: e971, August 2020, DOI:10.1002/asl.971, 1-11.
  • Rao Suryachandra A., Goswami B.N., Sahai A.K., Rajagopal E.N., Mukhopadhyay P. et al., Monsoon Mission : A targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, December 2019, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1, 2509-2532.
  • Raghav P, Borkotoky S S, Joseph J, Chattopadhyay R, A K Sahai and Ghosh S, Revamping Extended range forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05454-5.
  • Saranya G, A. K. Sahai, S. Abhilash, S. Joseph and Manpreet Kaur, An index for capturing the genesis and evolution of Tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, Earth and Space Science, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001209.
  • N. K. Shahi, S. Rai and A. K. Sahai, The relationship between the daily dominant monsoon modes of South Asia and SST, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03304-2.
  • A. Dey, R Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai, R Mandal, Susmitha Joseph, Phani R, Abhilash S, MJO prediction Skill in IITM Extended range prediction system and how does it compare with ECMWF S2S, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02487-z.
  • Sujata K. Mandke, Prasanth A. Pillai and A. K. Sahai, Simulation of monsoon intraseaonal oscillations in GFDL models from AMIP integrations of CMIP5, International Journal of Climatology, 2020, DOI: 10.1002/ joc.6536, Int J Climatol. 2020; 1-16.
  • Robertson A. W., Acharya N.,Goddard L., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Singh K.K., Ghosh K., Agarwal A., Buizer J.L.,, Subseasonal forecasts of the 2018 Indian summer monsoon over Bihar, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, November 2019, DOI:10.1029/2019JD031374, 13861-13875.
  • Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Phani R., Abhilash S., Operational tracking method for the MJO using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, June 2019, DOI:10.1007/s00024-018-2066-8, 2697-2717.
  • Mandal R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Phani R., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R., Pattanaik D.R., Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India, Scientific Reports, 9, June 2019, DOI:10.1038/s41598-019-45430-6, 1-11.
  • Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Muralikrishna R.P., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Tiwari A.D., Mishra V., Evolution of operational extended range forecast system of IMD : Prospects of its applications in different sectors, Mausam, 70, April 2019, 233-264.
  • Chattopadhyay R., Thomas A., Phani R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Study on the capability of the NCEP-CFS model in simulating the frequency and intensity of high-intensity rainfall events over Indian region in the high and low resolutions, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 5, March 2019, DOI:10.1007/s40808-018-0520-3, 85-100.
  • Dhar, R.B., Chakraborty, S., Chattopadhyay, R. et al. Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land Surface Temperature Using Satellite Data: A Case Study of Rajarhat Block, North 24-Parganas District, West Bengal. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 47, 331-348 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-019-00939-1.
  • Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., enesis and track prediction of pre?monsoon cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean in a multi?model ensemble framework, Natural Hazards, 95, February 2019, DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3522-6, 823-843.
  • Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Phani M.K., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Skill evaluation of extended range forecast of rainfall and temperature over meteorological subdivisions of India, Weather and Forecasting, 34, February 2019, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-18-0055, 81-101.
  • Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Ganesh S., Kaur M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Understanding the intraseasonal variability over Indian region and development of an operational extended range prediction system, Mausam, 70, January 2019, 31-56.
  • Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., De S., Agarwal N.K., Sahai A.K., Devi S.S., Rajeevan M., Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intraseasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season, Climate Dynamics, 51, November 2018, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3, 3435-3446.
  • Chattopadhyay N., Rao K.V., Sahai A.K., Balasubramanian R., Pai D.S., Pattanaik D.R., Chandras S.V., Khedikar S., Usability of extended range and seasonal weather forecast in Indian agriculture, Mausam, 69, January 2018, 29-44.
  • Shahi N.K., Rai S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Intra-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon and its relationship with the Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperature in the NCEP CFSv2, International Journal of Climatology, 38 (Suppl.1), April 2018, DOI:10.1002/joc.5349, e28-e47.
  • Shrivastava S., Kar S. C., Sahai A.K., Sharma A.R., Identification of drought occurrences using Ensemble predictions up to 20-Days in advance, Water Resources Management, 32, April 2018, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1921-9, 2113-2130.
  • Saranya G., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., New approach to improve the track prediction of Tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, August 2018, DOI:10.1029/2018GL077650, 7781-7789.
  • Sahai S., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Bias?correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map, Climate Dynamics, 48, April 2017, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3214-4, 2437-2451.
  • Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Borah N., Goswami B.N., Pai D.S., Srivastava A.K. , Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction, Natural Hazards, 88, September 2017, DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-2895-2, 853-865.
  • Shah Reepal, Sahai A K, Mishra Vimal, Short-to-medium range hydrologic forecast to manage water and agricultural resources in India, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 February 2017, DOI:10-5194/hess-2016-504, 707-720.
  • Joseph S., Sahai A. K., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Rajeevan M., Mandal R., Dey A., Borah N., Phani R., Extremes in June rainfall during Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: Observational Analysis and Extended range prediction, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 142, April 2016, DOI:10.1002/qj.2730, 1276- 1289. ISSN 0035-9009.
  • Mandke S. K. and Sahai A. K., Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves, Natural Hazards 2016, DOI:10.1007/s11069-016 -2546-z 0921-030x.
  • Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Phani R., Abhilash S., Extended Range Prediction System and its Application, Vayu Mandal, 2016, January, 42, 75-96.
  • Pandey, D. K., Rai S., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S. and Shahi N. K., Prediction and error growth in the daily forecast of precipitation from the NCEP CFS v2 over the subdivisions of Indian continent, Journal of Earth System Sciences, 2016, 125 (no.1), 29-45.
  • Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Mandal R., Dey A., Abhilash A., Krishna R.P.M., Borah N., Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2, Current Science, 109, November 2015, 1802-1813. ISSN 0011- 3891.
  • Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Joseph S., Sharmila S, Rajeevan M., High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts: an objective assessment, Climate Dynamics, 44, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9, 3129-3140. ISSN 0930-7575.
  • Sharmila S., Joseph S., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate Models, Global and Planetary Change, 2015, 24:62-78, DOI:10.1016 /j.gloplacha.2014.11.004, 5.
  • Pillai P. A. and Sahai A. K., Northward and eastward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the Indian Ocean: Implications from moist static energy budget analysis, Climate Dynamics, 2015, DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2904-7.
  • Sharmila S., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., and Goswami B.N., Asymmetry in space-time characteristics of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations during extreme years - Role of seasonal mean state, International Journal of Climatology, 2015, DOI:10.1002/joc.4100.
  • Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Pillai P.A., Rajeevan M., Arun Kumar, North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction, Climate Dynamics, 44, May 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5, 2049-2065 . ISSN 0930-7575.
  • Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Mapes B.E., Rajeevan M., Kumar A., Development and evaluation of an objective criterion for the Real-Time prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset in a coupled model framework, Journal of Climate, 28, August 2015, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14- 00842.1, 6234-6248. ISSN 0894-8755.
  • Borah N., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R. , Joseph S., Sharmila S., Kumar A., Assessment of real-time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon, International Journal of Climatology, 35, October 2015, I:10.1002/joc.4178, 2860-2876. ISSN 0899-8418.
  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A., Improved Spread-Error Relationship and Probabilistic Prediction from the CFS-Based Grand Ensemble Prediction System, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578. ISSN 1558-8424.
  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A., Better spread-error relationship in a multimodel ensemble prediction system, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, August 2015, 1228-1229. ISSN 0273-0979.
  • Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Borah N., Goswami B.N., New method to compute the principal components from self-organizing maps: an application to monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, International Journal of Climatology, 34, July 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3885, 2925-2939. 0899-8418.
  • Pillai P.A., Sahai A.K., Moist dynamics of active/break cycle of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from NCEPR2 and MERRA reanalysis, International Journal of Climatology, 34, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3774, 1429-1444. ISSN 0899-8418.
  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar, Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2, Climate Dynamics, 42, May 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-2045-9, 2801- 2815. ISSN 0930-7575.
  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N, Does bias correction in the forecasted SST improve the extended range prediction skill of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall?, Atmospheric Science Letters, 15, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/asl2.477, 114-119. ISN 1530-261X
  • Abhilash S., Sahai A. K., Pattnaik S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar, Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System, International Journal of Climatology, 34, January 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3668, 98-11. ISN 0899-8418.
  • Sharmila Sur, Pillai P.A., Joseph S., Roxy M., Krishna R.P.M., Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Goswami B.N., Role of ocean-atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO), Climate Dynamics, 41, September 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1854- 1, 1651-1669. . ISSN 0930-7575.
  • Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph Susmitha, Roxy M., De S., Pattnaik S., Pillai P.A., Simulation and Extended range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework, Current Science, 104, May 2013, 1394-1408. ISSN 0011-3891.
  • Pattnaik S., Abhilash S., De S., Sahai A.K., Phani R., Goswami B.N., Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective, Climate Dynamics, 41, July 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1662-7, 341-365. ISSN 0930-7575.
  • Borah N., Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Goswami B.N., Self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon, Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, August 2013, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50688, 1-13. ISSN 0148-0227.
  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Pattnaik S., De S., Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics, 100-101, August 2013, DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2013.03.017, 13-23. ISSN 0021-9169.


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